By CHIMPREPORTS | Imam Mugisha
In alignment with the Paris Agreement, Uganda has recently proposed a commitment to achieving carbon neutrality. This move aims to expedite the development of low-carbon, clean, and modern energy systems throughout the country. Simultaneously, fostering sustainable development is a crucial objective for nations transitioning to a low-carbon economy, aligning with the United Nations Development Goal 13 and the 2015 Paris Agreement. It’s crucial to recognize that fossil fuels, contributing to approximately 60% of greenhouse gases, are the primary drivers of climate change. Renewable energies are pivotal in ensuring global energy supply security and reducing dependence on fossil fuels, subsequently curbing harmful emissions.
In September 2023, the African Union and the Government of the Republic of Kenya jointly hosted the inaugural Africa Climate Summit. The summit, themed “Driving Green Growth and Climate Finance Solutions for Africa and the World,” concluded with the Nairobi Declaration. This eleven-point call to action underlines African States’ unified commitment to climate action in preparation for the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28). Despite a heated debate during the summit on the energy transition and its financing, there remains a lack of public awareness regarding the narratives shaping the transition and its specifics.
Several months after the Nairobi summit, countries convened in Dubai, UAE, for the annual Conference of Parties (COP28) to discuss climate change. During COP28, Uganda seized the opportunity to unveil its Energy Transition Plan. The plan sets an ambitious target for Uganda to achieve net-zero emissions in the energy sector by 2065. Recognizing the country’s abundant domestic energy and mineral resources, including solar, hydroelectric, and geothermal power, Uganda aims to realize this transition. Launched on December 5, 2023, the Energy Transition Plan also envisions universal energy access for Uganda by 2030.
However, it is notable that the Energy Transition Plan remains silent on the critical role of specific minerals in driving Uganda’s race to net-zero by 2065. Despite mentioning critical mineral deposits such as graphite in Oromo (Northern Uganda), copper, and cobalt in Western Uganda, and rare earth elements at Makuutu (Busoga region, Eastern Uganda), the plan lacks emphasis on the strategic importance of these minerals in achieving the outlined goals.
The Energy Transition Plan appropriately highlights the necessity for geological surveys to enhance the understanding of critical mineral potential. It rightly advocates for the enforcement of stringent environmental and standards in the mining sector, including reporting obligations and transparency standards, with an emphasis on integrating these regulations into the licensing process. However, it falls short in mapping the country’s full potential for critical minerals. The plan lacks economic supply and demand models for critical minerals, which are essential enablers and drivers for the proposed 2065 net-zero emissions scenario. Additionally, it remains silent on the application of green energy technology for various purposes, including flagship EV-technology innovation, Kiira EVs’ critical minerals demand, geo-thermal technology, and the mineral demand and supply model for solar and wind technology.
While the global trend leans toward affordable, clean, and efficient energy systems, it is crucial to recognize that meeting Uganda’s climate and energy security goals necessitates not only managing emissions growth but also sourcing other critical minerals to facilitate this transition. Uganda, as a signatory of the Paris Agreement, has committed to implementing policies to curb emissions growth and meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Simultaneously, the country needs significant expansion in energy access, infrastructure, and demand to drive economic growth and development. The energy transition plan aims to balance these goals by prioritizing approaches that curb emissions growth without negatively impacting development, creating opportunities to attract international climate finance. The country must mobilize annual energy investment needs, with the goal to increase to USD 8 billion by the end of this decade, requiring an annual investment of USD 850 million.
Emphasizing justice, inclusivity, equality, and Afro-centric energy transition as integral to Uganda’s energy transition, there is a need to initiate programs that spark an inclusive and informed transition. It is essential to make the agenda widely known, especially considering discussions at the central level. Addressing the gravity of the issue, initiatives like rural electrification and the recent regional launch of the $638 million Electricity Access Scale-up project (EASP) in Katakwi district, signify progress but also underscore the need for comprehensive grassroots engagement in the energy transition process.
Engaging grassroots communities is paramount for the success of Uganda’s energy transition. Currently, approximately 98% of the population relies on biomass, such as firewood and charcoal, for cooking. To achieve the country’s target of net-zero emissions by 2065, it is crucial to garner community acceptance and involvement. Initiating discussions and involving grassroots communities in the energy transition will serve as a foundational step toward realizing this goal.
Unlike past energy transitions characterized by top-down, centralized systems, the current transition involves diverse stakeholders influenced by public policy and is more likely to include social groups directly affected. However, ensuring a just transition requires a radical reorganization of socio-economic infrastructures to accommodate change. Historical evidence indicates that energy transitions evolve gradually over time, shaped by technologies, market incentives, policy shifts, and consumer behavior. Uganda’s Energy Transition plan should strategically outline ways to empower grassroots communities to drive project development and actively participate in the low-carbon energy transition.
Notably, citizens’ experiences in the energy domain have often been framed as information gaps, assuming that providing adequate information will prompt the desired behavioral changes. However, there is a growing awareness that people rarely respond in such a straightforward manner. The Energy Transition plan should acknowledge and address this reality, moving away from assumptions that information alone will drive sustainable practices. Sustainable energy transition necessitates participatory and inclusive governance structures and organizational formats that empower citizens to be full stakeholders in the process, sharing the benefits and contributing to the success of the transition. Ignoring citizens’ perspectives can prove costly and time-consuming, potentially slowing down the energy transition process.
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