As July advances, Uganda’s weather has taken an unexpected twist, creating a sense of unease and bewilderment among the country’s farming communities. Traditionally, this month, referred to locally as “Kasambula,” is marked by dry conditions that offer farmers a vital opportunity to prepare their land following the June harvest. However, this year has defied expectations with unusual rainfall patterns, prompting the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) to issue a prudent advisory for farmers.
Yusufu Nsubuga, a meteorologist at UNMA, attributes these unexpected weather shifts to changes in southern hemispheric systems. These atmospheric alterations have moved the rain belt away from its usual northern position, resulting in unanticipated rainfall in the typically drier southern regions. Initially, UNMA had predicted a dry season for the south, encompassing the southwestern areas, central region, Lake Victoria basin, and parts of the eastern region. The unforeseen shift in the rain belt has injected a layer of uncertainty into the weather forecasts.
While northern regions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, the southern parts of the country are experiencing a confusing mix of wet and dry conditions. Nsubuga advises farmers to exercise caution, as the current weather patterns might shift once more, potentially bringing about the anticipated dry season as early as August. This year’s weather variability underscores the escalating challenges farmers face as they attempt to adapt to evolving climatic conditions.
This unpredictability has placed farmers, particularly in the central and southwestern regions, in a precarious situation. Some, such as Alice Namukasa, have already commenced planting seasonal crops like maize, relying heavily on their local experience and knowledge. They are confronted with a difficult decision: to wait for the traditionally recommended planting season and risk missing out on the current rains or to plant immediately and contend with the possibility of an early cessation of rainfall.
Namukasa’s predicament mirrors the broader struggle faced by many farmers who are grappling with the rapid changes in weather patterns. There is a genuine concern that waiting for the conventional planting season might coincide with the end of the rains, jeopardizing crop yields and food security. This situation highlights the profound impact that climate change and shifting weather patterns are having on traditional farming practices, underscoring the need for farmers to navigate these uncertainties with care.
UNMA’s advisory emphasizes the importance of patience for those cultivating seasonal crops. The recommendation is to wait for the normal rainy season, which is forecasted to begin towards the end of September. During this period, precipitation levels are expected to return to near-average, providing a more stable environment for planting seasonal crops. For those growing fast-maturing crops like vegetables, Nsubuga suggests capturing and storing rainwater from the current rains for use during drier intervals. This strategy can help mitigate the effects of unpredictable weather and ensure a reliable water supply for irrigation.
The latest forecast for the final ten days of July indicates that predominantly wet conditions will continue in the northern sector of Uganda. Districts such as Yumbe, Moyo, Koboko, Arua, and Madi Okollo in the West Nile sub-region are expected to experience substantial rainfall. Similar weather patterns are anticipated for Kitgum, Pader, and Agago districts in the Acholi sub-region, as well as in the Karamoja sub-region, which includes Karenga, Kaabong, Kotido, Moroto, Napak, and Nabilatuk districts.
The forecast also warns of potential hazards such as flash floods, waterlogging, and contamination of water sources due to increased surface runoff. Motorists are advised to exercise extreme caution due to the expected foggy and hazy conditions in the southern part of the country.
Temperature trends are also significant, with relatively warm conditions projected across Uganda. Mean temperatures are anticipated to range from 20°C to 24°C, with hotter conditions expected in areas adjacent to the western arm of the Rift Valley, where temperatures might reach between 24°C and 28°C. Cooler temperatures are forecasted for high-altitude regions such as the Kigezi sub-region and the Rwenzori and Elgon highlands, where temperatures could drop to between 8°C and 12°C.
As Uganda faces these unpredictable weather patterns, farmers are advised to stay informed and adapt their practices accordingly. While the current rains offer a temporary respite, the uncertainty surrounding future weather highlights the need for careful planning and flexibility. By keeping up with UNMA’s forecasts and employing innovative strategies such as rainwater harvesting, farmers can better manage the risks associated with changing weather patterns, helping to secure their crops and livelihoods in the face of evolving climate challenges.
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