By CHANGE OF GUARDS
Uganda’s leading political opposition figure, Col. (Rtd) Dr. Kiiza Besigye, has embarked on a countrywide political mobilization tour dubbed “consultation meetings.” He has already visited Jinja, Mbarara, Kabale, Rukungiri, and Kasese, where he has led processions in urban settings. His message is loud and clear: “The country is held hostage by Museveni and his family rule.” He calls upon the population to “stand up and reclaim their country.” Besigye makes it categorically clear that he does not believe Museveni’s “military junta” can be democratically removed from power. Over the years, he has consistently argued that if citizens get organized, they could cause a regime change even before the 2026 general elections.
Since the advent of the Arab Spring mass uprisings, which led to the deposition of authoritarian regimes in the North Africa region, Museveni has consistently been on the lookout for potential sparks of similar movements in Uganda. Consequently, he enacted the draconian Public Order Management Act, which gravely curtails freedom of movement and assembly. He has allocated vast amounts of scarce public resources to building capacity to counter potential mass uprisings. In instances where there has been a perceived threat of such an uprising, such as in Kasese and Kampala, he has brutally suppressed the opposition, resulting in hundreds dead, many brutally brutalized, and others languishing under detention without trial. His security machinery remains on high alert for any potential spark, regulating and closely monitoring any form of public gathering, including religious, funeral, entertainment, wedding, and party events, as well as motor and fire accident scenes, peaceful protests, strikes by trade unionists, and even gatherings of young students. In all these scenarios and events, the army takes the lead in the so-called maintenance of law and order.
For over the past decade, Dr. Besigye has been the sole advocate and at the forefront of mobilization for a mass uprising as the most viable method of regime change. In the same regard, he has endured the worst form of political persecution by the Museveni regime. However, he has not relented in his pursuit of the same approach; instead, he has stood his ground. His current revival of the same call comes at a time when it has become crystal clear that the Museveni autocracy cannot be dislodged democratically. Moreover, the ground is so ripe that a slight spark is enough to ignite a mass uprising, a fact the regime fully appreciates. Therefore, in these circumstances, it’s paradoxical for Museveni to allow Dr. Besigye to traverse the countryside with such a highly “treasonous” agenda.
Here are the reasons behind Museveni’s delay to act:
The mobilization and processions are occurring far away from the capital, Kampala, which is the seat of government. Museveni understands that the upcountry masses cannot advance on Kampala and obviously will not allow Dr. Besigye to hold processions in Greater Kampala. If he insists, he will face criminal charges of inciting violence or threats of physical harm.
Dr. Besigye’s tours coincide with Gen. Muhoozi, Museveni’s son, holding political rallies in the countryside. Museveni is attempting to mitigate the contradictions that would arise if he were to stop Dr. Besigye. Additionally, this development occurs at a time when public debate has been dominated by his formal assignment of his son as army chief. He badly needed something else to distract attention, and he is succeeding.
Museveni estimates that Dr. Besigye’s return to the political scene will propagate antagonism with NUP. Since its inception, some misguided NUP supporters preferred Bobi Wine as the sole figure in the political opposition. They acknowledged Dr. Besigye’s strength and craved his public endorsement of Bobi Wine’s candidacy. At one time, they physically attacked him as he left a radio talk show at CBS. However, their differences have been overtaken by events and the reality of the current political situation in the country. The two principals are attempting to forge a political alliance over the mass uprising approach. The panicky regime is already sponsoring a narrative designed to resurrect past animosities between the two entities, ignoring the fact that Dr. Besigye has categorically stated that he is not running in the 2026 general elections.
Dr. Besigye’s comeback poses a significant threat to Museveni’s Muhoozi Project and must be neutralized at all costs.
INFORMATION IS POWER AND THE PROBLEM OF UGANDA IS MUSEVENISM
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