The upcoming election in South Sudan

Dr Francis G. Nazario

South Sudan is set to hold general elections this year 2024. Certain outstanding issues in the revitalized peace agreement 2018 have not been implemented but their fate needs to be addressed by the signatory parties. These include making a permanent constitution and establishing a unifying military command, whose implementation requires only a genuine political will. Elections were initially planned for 2022 and then pushed to 2023, and now they are expected to be in 2024. The delays occurred because of simmering tensions between the Peace Agreement signatories. If these general elections are to be organized, an inclusive process must be prioritized in all the phases to save the country’s fragile peace and get the elections on track. The success of the 2024 elections (yet to be scheduled) will be a litmus test for South Sudan’s commitment to democracy and peaceful change of power.

Holding this crucial election is important as it would signal the introduction of a peaceful process for the change of power holders and the selection of persons for any of the high public offices in South Sudan. The process should be willingly adopted and respected by the government and all the aspirants for political positions (President, Governor, member of Parliament …etc.) The question on many minds is whether fair, credible, and transparent elections can be achieved in South Sudan. The election was last organized in South Sudan in 2010, one year before it separated from the Sudan. That process witnessed cases of electoral irregularities, which were widely reported at the time.

One of the major challenges facing the prospect of a fair and credible election in South Sudan is the lingering political tension and violence that have plagued the country since its independence in 2011. The deep-rooted ethnic-political divisions/ allegiances and deadly power struggles among political elites. If not addressed, it won’t only overshadow the electoral process but may lead to fraud, intimidation, violence, and ultimately the protest of the results. The lack of a strong institutional framework for organizing and conducting elections can further exacerbate these challenges. Weak governance structures and rampant corruption would undermine the credibility of any process.

Voter registration and identification pose a significant hurdle to ensuring a fair election in South Sudan. With a large portion of the population living in rural and remote areas with limited access to identification documents, there is a risk of disenfranchising many eligible voters. Many South Sudan are still living in refugee camps in the neighbouring countries with no prospects of them being brought back before the election or assisted in any way and allowed to participate in the elections. The prevalence of illiteracy in general and lack of awareness about electoral procedures among the populace could be exploited by political actors and power-hungry individuals to further manipulate the voting process, casting doubt on the legitimacy of the election results.

The establishment of an independent electoral commission tasked with overseeing the entire electoral process is a positive move. Yet, it needs to be trained and equipped with the necessary skills to fulfil its roles of ensuring impartiality and accountability. The commission’s role in voter education, monitoring campaign financing, and addressing electoral disputes will be crucial in upholding the integrity of the election. The involvement of international observers and election monitoring missions will play a vital role in promoting transparency and credibility during the election period. By providing an external oversight mechanism, these observers can help deter electoral malpractices, ensure compliance with international standards, and build public confidence in the electoral process. Their presence can also serve as a deterrent to potential spoilers who may seek to disrupt the election through violence or coercion.

An essential aspect of ensuring a fair and credible election in South Sudan is fostering inclusivity and participation among all segments of society. Given the country’s diverse ethnic composition and history of conflict along ethnic lines, it is imperative that measures are taken to ensure inclusivity. The government should promote political dialogue and reconciliation among all the political groups before embarking into election. Building trust through inclusive political processes, such as dialogue forums and peacebuilding initiatives, can help mitigate tensions and create a conducive environment for free and fair elections.

Furthermore, promoting gender equality and women’s participation in the electoral process is crucial for enhancing the legitimacy of the election outcomes. Women in South Sudan have historically been underrepresented in political decision-making processes. Efforts have been made to improve the situation yet more efforts need to be exerted to increase and guarantee their participation as voters, candidates, and election observers. That would contribute to a more inclusive and representative democracy. South Sudan can take a significant step towards achieving a more equitable electoral process by addressing barriers to women’s political participation, such as cultural norms and lack of access to resources.

Looking beyond the election day itself, ensuring post-election stability is essential for consolidating democratic gains and preventing a return to conflict in South Sudan. The peaceful transfer of power, respect for the rule of law, and acceptance of election results by all parties are critical components of a successful electoral process. Political leaders must demonstrate a commitment to upholding democratic principles and resolving disputes through peaceful means to avoid triggering further violence or instability. Moreover, political parties’ programmes should plan and state clearly how they would envisage addressing the underlying socio-economic grievances, nonpayment of civil servants for long periods, unemployment, and lack of basic services, which is key to building a more stable and inclusive society and foster social cohesion in which democratic institutions can thrive. By prioritizing good governance, transparency, and accountability in post-election governance, South Sudan can lay the foundation for sustainable peace and development.

While the road to a fair, credible, and transparent election in South Sudan in 2024 is fraught with challenges, there are opportunities for progress through concerted efforts by all stakeholders. By addressing primarily all the outstanding issues in the implementation of the revitalized peace agreement, particularly the security arrangements, holding of dialogue with all the political forces in the country on elections, voter registration, transparency, inclusivity, and post-election governance, South Sudan can overcome its turbulent past and move towards a more democratic future. The success of the 2024 election will not only shape the country’s political landscape but also determine its trajectory towards peace and prosperity.

Dr. Francis G. Nazario, Independent consultant, Doctor of Political Science, former ambassador, and former United Nations official. Can be reach through: [email protected]